The 2019 season was full of ups and downs for Origen. They finished 2nd in the Spring split, only to find themselves finishing 8th in the Summer split. In hopes of avoiding another disappointing finish, Origen have replaced over half of their roster. Kold, Patrik, and Mithy were all replaced with a combination of two historically successful players (Xerxe and UpseT), as well as an Australian player, Destiny, making his LEC debut.
Jungle: Xerxe – Former Splyce
Bot: Upset – Former Schalke 04
Support: Destiny – Former MAMMOTH
Fantasy Player/Team Projections
As one of the two remaining players from last year’s Origen roster, Alphari looks to prove that the blame for their recent decline shouldn’t be placed on him. Even though Origen finished the regular season in 8th place last Summer split with a record of 7-11, Alphari ranked 11th out of all LCS/LEC top laners in average fantasy points scored per game (16.6 ppg) (min 5 GP). All the stats make it clear that Alphari is very skilled individually, as he led the all LEC tops in GD10 (+305), XPD10 (+250) and CSD10 (+13.4). Consistently outperforming his lane opponents translated well for Alphari’s fantasy points, and these stats are ones that are less affected by changing teammates. So, with Alphari expected to keep up his trend of outperforming the expectations put on him by his team’s strength, he will be a valuable pick for anyone looking for a top laner who’s on the cheaper side but is still able to produce points consistently.
Leaving his 2 year long stint with Splyce, the jungler known for his off-meta and innovative picks is coming to Origen’s 2020 roster. Splyce’s 3rd place regular season finish last Summer is reflected in Xerxe’s average fantasy points per game ranking, tied for 5th with Xmithie (19.3 ppg) (min 5 GP). The main thing that sets Xerxe apart from all the junglers below him was his incredibly low amount of deaths per game. Out of all LEC junglers last Summer, Xerxe had the least amount of deaths per game (1.8), and the lowest team death percentage (14.1%). This is valuable because this ensures that even when Xerxe is losing, he isn’t hemorrhaging all the points he’s earned by dying, making him a safe pick. Origen isn’t expected to do as well as Splyce did last Summer, but Xerxe is still valuable as a solid jungler that will guarantee a decent score very week, win or lose.
As the second returning player from last year’s Origen roster, Nukeduck wants to reclaim last Spring’s success with this new roster around him. Nukeduck’s fantasy performance in Summer was not impressive, ranking 13th in average fantasy points per game out of all LCS/LEC mid laners (18.5 ppg) (min 5 GP). Looking at his stats, Nukeduck was just a rather mediocre mid laner last Summer. All of his laning and damage/gold stats were at best 5th out of all LEC mid laners, and nothing in particular about him stood out. Perhaps with Xerxe coming in as his new jungler, he can see a boost in points, but otherwise it’s looking to be more of the same from Nukeduck coming into 2020. Origen as a team is expected to do better than last Summer, so Nukeduck will be a decent pick as a placeholder mid when your stronger players are elsewhere.
After Upset’s incredible fantasy season with Schalke 04 last Summer, he has come to Origen to potentially repeat history and be a top scorer despite his team’s lack of success. Upset was not only the highest average fantasy points per game scorer among all LCS/LEC bot laners, he was the highest scorer out of any position, with 30.2 points per game. What set him apart from everyone else was his incredibly high kills per game (5.8), and CS per game (356). Upset’s former team, Schalke 04, had the second longest average game time in the LEC, (33.9 minutes) which boosted Upset’s stats with extra scoring opportunities and extra resources. Upset had the highest damage percentage (31.3%) and gold percentage (29.5%) of any bot laner in the LEC last Summer, which combined with the long game times allowed him to score an average of over 30 points per game. Buying Upset week one is a pretty huge risk, considering that he will be one of the most expensive players and Origen’s chances of success aren’t very clear right now. However, if Origen follow S04’s game plan of drawing out games long enough for Upset to carry, expect him to once again be a highly sought after pick.
Leaving behind a long history of success in the OPL with MAMMOTH and Chiefs Esports, Destiny is ready to make the leap to a major region. During the second OPL split last year, Destiny averaged 0.9 kills, 1.9 deaths, 12.5 assists, and 55.9 CS per game. With these stats, he would have been the highest average fantasy points per game scorer among all LCS/LEC supports with 20.8 points per game. This without a doubt proves that he’s ready for the stronger competition that the LEC offers. However, as is standard for all wildcard players coming to a major region, his points are expected to drop a bit given the increase in talent he’s playing against every week. His price will start out closer to the average for supports, so he will be worth it as a budget saver early in the split.
Origen’s 8th place finish last Summer led to them ranking 17th out of the 20 LCS/LEC teams in terms of average fantasy points per game (12.4 ppg). All of the stats that matter for scoring highly as a team such as first blood percentage, first tower/first three towers percentage, and first dragon percentage were all among the worst in the LEC. With a fresh start coming into 2020, Origen are expected to perform better than last split, and that will help out their team score every week. This will make them a good budget saving pick at the beginning of the split, with potential to become a good, consistent, scorer as the weeks go on.